Hydro-Meteorological Behavior and Intensifying Rainfall Extremes in the Kullu District, Himachal Pradesh
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.55863/ijees.2026.0936Keywords:
Mann-kendall test, Sen’s Slope estimate, Kullu, GIS, Hydro-Meteorological hazards, extreme rainfall, rainfall variabilityAbstract
The Kullu district of Himachal Pradesh has seen significant changes in hydro-meteorological conditions over the past few years, including rainfall variability and extreme weather events. The study focuses on rainfall patterns at the Kullu and Manali stations in the district, using daily rainfall data for 20 years (2005-2024), and on the evaluation of the spatial rainfall pattern for 2020-2024 through GIS analysis. The non-parametric Mann-Kendall test and Sen’s slope estimator were performed to check the trend analysis of the rainfall pattern. The findings show a weak but consistent positive trend in annual rainfall at both stations, with Sen’s slope indicating a yearly rise of 6-10 mm. Seasonal analysis revealed increases in monsoon and post-monsoon rainfall, but a reduction in winter precipitation. The GIS maps of spatial rainfall indicate an expansion of high rainfall zones (>1200 mm) across the district over the past 5 years. Along with this, a slope map generated shows that the region has more than 55% of its landmass under the steep terrain category with slopes greater than 30 degrees. These results show that there has been a rise in wet years, greater rainfall magnitudes, and intensifying extreme events, indicating a wetter hydroclimatic future. These results are consistent with the IPCC AR6 reports for the western Himalayas and underscore the importance of improved monitoring, disaster preparedness, and climate-based planning in the region.
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